Overview

This analysis is trying to get a handle on how weather (particularly temperature) is related to corticosterone in tree swallows. Samples are from adults and nestlings measured in Ithaca from 2013-2020. Samples collected after direct manipulations are excluded, but some samples after manipulations that we don’t think had any impact on corticosterone are still included (e.g., color manipulations). Samples that are collected after injections other than post-dex are also excluded. There is probably a bit more cleaning and checking that could be done here for a final analysis, but this should be pretty good as a general overview given how large the sample sizes are. Weather data is from the Ithaca Airport or Game Farm Road station and is summarized in various ways as described below.

For each combination of weather variable and cort measurement, I’m fitting essentially the same models that are as simple as possible. Basically, they include just latency and (usually) random effects for year and individual identity. In some cases the random effects are estimated at 0 and are removed to get around errors (they explain no variance). For females, I also have a categorical predictor for capture number, wich roughly equals early incubation (intercept), late incubation (capture 2), and provisioning (capture 3). Males and nestlings don’t have that since they are almost exclusively samples from ~day 4-8 (males) and day 12 (nestlings) after hatching. The plots are not controlling for the other variables that are in the models, they are just straight scatter plots for illustration. The fit lines are simple loess smoothed regressions so also aren’t controlling for anything. More could of course be done for any of these that we want to follow up on in more detail.

In some cases, I’m also modeling and plotting log values because a few points skew so high that it’s hard to see them. I’ve also trimmed the y-axis in some cases so that a few of the very highest value points are not visible in plots (e.g., in some basecort plots there are a handful of points >50 ng/ul but expending the y axis that high makes it impossible to see anything in the normal range).

One important thing to note is that the x axes differ between figures because nestlings and males are only ever sampled later in the season and because of that we have much less data (or none) at some of the very lowest temperatures that females are sampled at. There are obviously a lot of different plots here and more different ways of summarizing weather that we could think about, and the exact relationships or strength of patterns can differ between some of these choices, but I think the main summary points are:

Baseline Corticosterone

Temperature around capture

This is using the average temperature for the three hours immediately before capture. The exact time of day included differs depending on the time of capture and is much later for nestlings. I did just the morning for females because not all entries in the database had times carried over and they’re all captured at similar times. Males and nestlings are more variable so I used the three hours prior even though that excluded some records.

Table: base cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 3.70 0.31 – 7.09 0.032 5.01 1.69 – 8.33 0.003 18.14 14.72 – 21.55 <0.001
Temperature 6-8am (C) -0.20 -0.37 – -0.03 0.018
Capture 2 1.91 0.36 – 3.47 0.016
Capture 3 -0.12 -2.34 – 2.10 0.917
Latency (min) 1.79 0.43 – 3.15 0.010 2.39 1.27 – 3.51 <0.001 0.97 -0.00 – 1.94 0.050
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -0.30 -0.46 – -0.15 <0.001 -0.61 -0.76 – -0.47 <0.001
Random Effects
σ2 122.61 20.26  
τ00 0.96 band 0.77 band  
ICC 0.01 0.04  
N 494 band 199 band  
Observations 1003 235 912
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.018 / 0.026 0.120 / 0.153 0.075 / 0.073

Figure: base cort vs. immediate temp


Table: log base cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 1.33 1.12 – 1.53 <0.001 1.18 0.75 – 1.60 <0.001 2.23 1.96 – 2.49 <0.001
Temperature 6-8am (C) -0.04 -0.05 – -0.03 <0.001
Capture 2 0.15 0.06 – 0.24 0.001
Capture 3 0.03 -0.10 – 0.15 0.698
Latency (min) 0.30 0.22 – 0.38 <0.001 0.46 0.31 – 0.60 <0.001 0.11 0.04 – 0.19 0.004
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -0.03 -0.05 – -0.01 0.001 -0.04 -0.05 – -0.03 <0.001
Random Effects
σ2 0.37 0.27  
τ00 0.07 band 0.08 band  
ICC 0.16 0.22  
N 494 band 199 band  
Observations 1003 235 912
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.106 / 0.251 0.171 / 0.350 0.059 / 0.056

Figure: log base cort vs. immediate temp


Average temperature night before capture

Here I’m using the average temperature from 10pm to 6am on the night before capture.

Table: base cort vs. night before

Low temperature previous night.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 2.15 -1.50 – 5.80 0.248 1.78 -1.64 – 5.20 0.307 6.94 2.57 – 11.30 0.002
Temperature (C) -0.12 -0.33 – 0.08 0.245 -0.12 -0.31 – 0.08 0.234 -0.17 -0.43 – 0.10 0.222
Capture 2 2.00 0.27 – 3.74 0.023
Capture 3 -0.40 -2.95 – 2.15 0.757
Latency (min) 1.92 0.42 – 3.43 0.012 2.37 1.17 – 3.57 <0.001 1.45 0.29 – 2.61 0.014
Random Effects
σ2 135.57 21.70  
τ00 0.47 band 0.93 band  
ICC 0.00 0.04  
N 474 band 191 band  
Observations 901 221 784
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.015 / 0.018 0.068 / 0.106 0.009 / 0.007

Figure: base cort vs. night before


Table: log base cort vs. night before

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 1.06 0.85 – 1.27 <0.001 0.70 0.26 – 1.13 0.002 1.35 1.02 – 1.68 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.02 -0.04 – -0.01 <0.001 -0.00 -0.03 – 0.02 0.844 -0.00 -0.02 – 0.02 0.817
Capture 2 0.15 0.06 – 0.25 0.002
Capture 3 -0.02 -0.16 – 0.12 0.801
Latency (min) 0.31 0.22 – 0.40 <0.001 0.45 0.29 – 0.60 <0.001 0.17 0.08 – 0.26 <0.001
Random Effects
σ2 0.39 0.29  
τ00 0.07 band 0.08 band  
ICC 0.16 0.22  
N 474 band 191 band  
Observations 901 221 784
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.073 / 0.220 0.130 / 0.325 0.018 / 0.016

Figure: log base cort vs. night before


Average temperature day before capture

Table: base cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.61 1.99 – 7.24 0.001 3.15 -0.78 – 7.09 0.116 9.61 5.09 – 14.13 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.13 -0.25 – -0.02 0.024 -0.17 -0.34 – 0.00 0.056 -0.23 -0.44 – -0.02 0.033
Capture 2 1.15 0.06 – 2.24 0.038
Capture 3 -0.03 -1.58 – 1.53 0.971
Latency (min) 0.95 -0.03 – 1.93 0.056 2.53 1.34 – 3.72 <0.001 0.85 -0.17 – 1.88 0.102
Random Effects
σ2 56.23 21.74  
τ00 0.46 band 0.91 band  
ICC 0.01 0.04  
N 467 band 191 band  
Observations 931 226 902
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.013 / 0.021 0.083 / 0.120 0.007 / 0.005

Figure: base cort vs. avg day before


Table: log base cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 1.08 0.85 – 1.32 <0.001 0.85 0.34 – 1.35 0.001 1.49 1.13 – 1.84 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.02 -0.03 – -0.01 <0.001 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.01 0.318 -0.01 -0.02 – 0.01 0.462
Capture 2 0.14 0.04 – 0.23 0.004
Capture 3 -0.01 -0.15 – 0.12 0.833
Latency (min) 0.33 0.24 – 0.42 <0.001 0.47 0.32 – 0.62 <0.001 0.10 0.02 – 0.18 0.012
Random Effects
σ2 0.38 0.30  
τ00 0.07 band 0.07 band  
ICC 0.16 0.20  
N 467 band 191 band  
Observations 931 226 902
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.074 / 0.219 0.142 / 0.310 0.007 / 0.005

Figure: log base cort vs. avg day before


High temperature day before capture

Table: base cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 2.42 -1.54 – 6.38 0.231 3.96 0.05 – 7.88 0.047 8.14 3.93 – 12.36 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.08 -0.22 – 0.07 0.316 -0.17 -0.32 – -0.02 0.022 -0.13 -0.30 – 0.04 0.123
Capture 2 1.88 0.32 – 3.44 0.018
Capture 3 -0.25 -2.47 – 1.97 0.826
Latency (min) 1.80 0.44 – 3.16 0.010 2.43 1.28 – 3.57 <0.001 0.79 -0.22 – 1.80 0.127
Random Effects
σ2 123.20 20.64  
τ00 0.80 band 1.22 band  
ICC 0.01 0.06  
N 494 band 199 band  
Observations 1004 235 913
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.014 / 0.020 0.085 / 0.136 0.005 / 0.003

Figure: base cort vs. high day before


Table: log base cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 1.15 0.91 – 1.39 <0.001 0.99 0.48 – 1.49 <0.001 1.42 1.09 – 1.75 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.02 -0.03 – -0.01 <0.001 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.00 0.119 -0.00 -0.02 – 0.01 0.729
Capture 2 0.15 0.06 – 0.24 0.001
Capture 3 -0.00 -0.13 – 0.13 0.963
Latency (min) 0.31 0.23 – 0.39 <0.001 0.46 0.31 – 0.61 <0.001 0.10 0.02 – 0.18 0.015
Random Effects
σ2 0.39 0.28  
τ00 0.07 band 0.08 band  
ICC 0.15 0.22  
N 494 band 199 band  
Observations 1004 235 913
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.071 / 0.208 0.144 / 0.333 0.006 / 0.004

Figure: log base cort vs. high day before


Average temperature prior 3 days

Table: base cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior 3 days.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 5.43 2.25 – 8.60 0.001 0.57 -3.67 – 4.80 0.793 15.47 10.08 – 20.85 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.17 -0.32 – -0.03 0.021 -0.04 -0.24 – 0.15 0.676 -0.53 -0.79 – -0.27 <0.001
Capture 2 1.23 0.05 – 2.41 0.041
Capture 3 0.04 -1.64 – 1.72 0.961
Latency (min) 0.91 -0.20 – 2.02 0.110 2.66 1.40 – 3.92 <0.001 1.07 0.02 – 2.12 0.046
Random Effects
σ2 60.30 22.95  
τ00 0.80 band 0.84 band  
ICC 0.01 0.04  
N 435 band 185 band  
Observations 848 216 874
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.013 / 0.026 0.074 / 0.107 0.022 / 0.019

Figure: base cort vs. prior 3 days


Table: log base cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Baseline Adult Male Baseline Nestling Baseline
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 1.08 0.85 – 1.32 <0.001 0.85 0.34 – 1.35 0.001 1.49 1.13 – 1.84 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.02 -0.03 – -0.01 <0.001 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.01 0.318 -0.01 -0.02 – 0.01 0.462
Capture 2 0.14 0.04 – 0.23 0.004
Capture 3 -0.01 -0.15 – 0.12 0.833
Latency (min) 0.33 0.24 – 0.42 <0.001 0.47 0.32 – 0.62 <0.001 0.10 0.02 – 0.18 0.012
Random Effects
σ2 0.38 0.30  
τ00 0.07 band 0.07 band  
ICC 0.16 0.20  
N 467 band 191 band  
Observations 931 226 902
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.074 / 0.219 0.142 / 0.310 0.007 / 0.005

Figure: log base cort vs. prior 3 days


Stress-Induced Corticosterone

Temperature around capture

Table: stress cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 59.01 52.71 – 65.31 <0.001 56.81 42.49 – 71.13 <0.001 38.77 30.15 – 47.40 <0.001
Temperature 6-8am (C) -1.25 -1.55 – -0.96 <0.001
Capture 2 -6.31 -9.00 – -3.62 <0.001
Capture 3 -2.49 -6.86 – 1.87 0.262
Latency (min) -3.95 -6.55 – -1.35 0.003 0.11 -4.55 – 4.77 0.964 2.43 0.53 – 4.33 0.012
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -1.12 -1.79 – -0.44 0.001 -1.04 -1.32 – -0.75 <0.001
Random Effects
σ2 202.07 344.09 299.58
Ï„00 131.99 band 0.00 band 30.48 year
ICC 0.40   0.09
N 450 band 183 band 5 year
Observations 764 214 839
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.102 / 0.457 0.047 / NA 0.069 / 0.155

Figure: stress cort vs. immediate temp


Table: log stress cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.08 3.88 – 4.28 <0.001 4.02 3.61 – 4.42 <0.001 3.30 2.96 – 3.64 <0.001
Temperature 6-8am (C) -0.03 -0.04 – -0.02 <0.001
Capture 2 -0.22 -0.30 – -0.13 <0.001
Capture 3 -0.03 -0.17 – 0.10 0.618
Latency (min) -0.12 -0.20 – -0.04 0.004 0.01 -0.13 – 0.14 0.924 0.15 0.05 – 0.24 0.004
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -0.03 -0.05 – -0.01 0.003 -0.04 -0.05 – -0.02 <0.001
Random Effects
σ2 0.20    
τ00 0.13 band    
ICC 0.39    
N 450 band    
Observations 764 214 839
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.085 / 0.439 0.040 / 0.031 0.042 / 0.039

Figure: log stress cort vs. immediate temp


Average temperature night before capture

Here I’m using the average temperature from 10pm to 6am on the night before capture.

Table: stress cort vs. night before

Low temperature previous night.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 62.44 55.94 – 68.94 <0.001 44.87 31.30 – 58.44 <0.001 13.09 5.05 – 21.12 0.001
Temperature (C) -1.69 -2.04 – -1.34 <0.001 -0.53 -1.31 – 0.25 0.186 0.26 -0.23 – 0.74 0.295
Capture 2 -4.93 -7.89 – -1.97 0.001
Capture 3 -1.37 -6.15 – 3.40 0.573
Latency (min) -3.79 -6.56 – -1.01 0.007 0.22 -4.38 – 4.82 0.925 3.20 0.93 – 5.47 0.006
Random Effects
σ2 202.55 276.08  
τ00 137.46 band 36.72 band  
ICC 0.40 0.12  
N 433 band 175 band  
Observations 688 200 725
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.127 / 0.480 0.009 / 0.125 0.012 / 0.009

Figure: stress cort vs. night before


Table: log stress cort vs. night before

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.18 3.98 – 4.38 <0.001 3.67 3.27 – 4.08 <0.001 2.22 1.82 – 2.62 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.05 -0.06 – -0.03 <0.001 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.01 0.417 0.02 -0.01 – 0.04 0.202
Capture 2 -0.17 -0.26 – -0.08 <0.001
Capture 3 -0.02 -0.16 – 0.13 0.832
Latency (min) -0.11 -0.20 – -0.03 0.010 0.00 -0.13 – 0.14 0.981 0.18 0.07 – 0.29 0.002
Random Effects
σ2 0.19 0.27  
τ00 0.14 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.42 0.01  
N 433 band 175 band  
Observations 688 200 725
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.106 / 0.484 0.003 / 0.017 0.016 / 0.013

Figure: log stress cort vs. night before


Average temperature day before capture

Table: stress cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 68.39 61.22 – 75.55 <0.001 57.53 40.98 – 74.07 <0.001 12.29 3.65 – 20.93 0.005
Temperature (C) -1.49 -1.79 – -1.19 <0.001 -1.02 -1.74 – -0.29 0.006 0.25 -0.15 – 0.65 0.222
Capture 2 -5.86 -8.57 – -3.14 <0.001
Capture 3 -3.08 -7.64 – 1.49 0.186
Latency (min) -3.75 -6.44 – -1.05 0.006 0.45 -4.34 – 5.23 0.854 2.35 0.35 – 4.35 0.022
Random Effects
σ2 196.29 319.30  
τ00 142.90 band 26.52 band  
ICC 0.42 0.08  
N 431 band 176 band  
Observations 717 206 829
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.133 / 0.498 0.036 / 0.110 0.008 / 0.006

Figure: stress cort vs. avg day before


Table: log stress cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.36 4.13 – 4.58 <0.001 3.97 3.50 – 4.44 <0.001 2.05 1.61 – 2.49 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.04 -0.05 – -0.03 <0.001 -0.02 -0.04 – -0.00 0.033 0.02 0.00 – 0.04 0.038
Capture 2 -0.20 -0.28 – -0.11 <0.001
Capture 3 -0.05 -0.19 – 0.09 0.483
Latency (min) -0.12 -0.20 – -0.03 0.008 0.01 -0.12 – 0.15 0.855 0.13 0.02 – 0.23 0.015
Random Effects
σ2 0.20 0.26  
τ00 0.13 band 0.01 band  
ICC 0.41 0.05  
N 431 band 176 band  
Observations 717 206 829
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.115 / 0.475 0.022 / 0.072 0.013 / 0.010

Figure: log stress cort vs. avg day before


High temperature day before capture

Table: stress cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 68.60 61.36 – 75.84 <0.001 55.51 38.40 – 72.61 <0.001 8.24 0.31 – 16.18 0.042
Temperature (C) -1.26 -1.52 – -1.00 <0.001 -0.75 -1.39 – -0.11 0.021 0.39 0.07 – 0.71 0.017
Capture 2 -5.82 -8.49 – -3.16 <0.001
Capture 3 -3.20 -7.53 – 1.12 0.146
Latency (min) -3.90 -6.48 – -1.33 0.003 0.45 -4.27 – 5.17 0.851 2.34 0.37 – 4.32 0.020
Random Effects
σ2 197.28 327.04  
τ00 133.15 band 25.00 band  
ICC 0.40 0.07  
N 450 band 183 band  
Observations 765 214 839
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.122 / 0.476 0.025 / 0.094 0.014 / 0.012

Figure: stress cort vs. high day before


Table: log stress cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.36 4.14 – 4.59 <0.001 3.93 3.45 – 4.41 <0.001 1.78 1.38 – 2.19 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.03 -0.04 – -0.03 <0.001 -0.02 -0.03 – 0.00 0.066 0.03 0.01 – 0.05 <0.001
Capture 2 -0.20 -0.28 – -0.12 <0.001
Capture 3 -0.05 -0.19 – 0.08 0.433
Latency (min) -0.12 -0.20 – -0.04 0.005 0.01 -0.12 – 0.15 0.842 0.12 0.02 – 0.22 0.016
Random Effects
σ2 0.19 0.28  
τ00 0.13 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.40    
N 450 band 183 band  
Observations 765 214 839
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.106 / 0.461 0.016 / NA 0.024 / 0.022

Figure: log stress cort vs. high day before


Average temperature prior 3 days

Table: stress cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior 3 days.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 63.26 54.69 – 71.83 <0.001 50.86 33.21 – 68.51 <0.001 28.17 18.05 – 38.28 <0.001
Temperature (C) -1.28 -1.67 – -0.90 <0.001 -0.62 -1.45 – 0.20 0.140 -0.56 -1.04 – -0.08 0.023
Capture 2 -5.77 -8.64 – -2.90 <0.001
Capture 3 -1.28 -6.21 – 3.65 0.611
Latency (min) -3.42 -6.38 – -0.46 0.023 -0.23 -5.30 – 4.84 0.929 2.93 0.89 – 4.98 0.005
Random Effects
σ2 206.41 339.87  
τ00 147.31 band 23.65 band  
ICC 0.42 0.07  
N 410 band 170 band  
Observations 656 196 805
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.086 / 0.466 0.011 / 0.076 0.015 / 0.013

Figure: stress cort vs. prior 3 days


Table: log stress cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Stress Induced Adult Male Stress Induced Nestling Stress Induced
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 4.36 4.13 – 4.58 <0.001 3.97 3.50 – 4.44 <0.001 2.05 1.61 – 2.49 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.04 -0.05 – -0.03 <0.001 -0.02 -0.04 – -0.00 0.033 0.02 0.00 – 0.04 0.038
Capture 2 -0.20 -0.28 – -0.11 <0.001
Capture 3 -0.05 -0.19 – 0.09 0.483
Latency (min) -0.12 -0.20 – -0.03 0.008 0.01 -0.12 – 0.15 0.855 0.13 0.02 – 0.23 0.015
Random Effects
σ2 0.20 0.26  
τ00 0.13 band 0.01 band  
ICC 0.41 0.05  
N 431 band 176 band  
Observations 717 206 829
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.115 / 0.475 0.022 / 0.072 0.013 / 0.010

Figure: log stress cort vs. prior 3 days


Post-Dexamethasone Corticosterone

Temperature around capture

Table: dex cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 20.09 13.87 – 26.30 <0.001 28.23 16.39 – 40.08 <0.001 9.37 2.58 – 16.17 0.007
Temperature 6-8am (C) -0.10 -0.41 – 0.21 0.509
Capture 2 1.63 -1.59 – 4.84 0.322
Capture 3 -2.10 -6.57 – 2.36 0.355
Latency (min) -2.24 -4.59 – 0.11 0.062 -1.59 -5.45 – 2.28 0.420 -0.41 -1.51 – 0.69 0.467
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -0.41 -1.04 – 0.22 0.202 0.04 -0.14 – 0.22 0.670
Random Effects
σ2 149.76 112.45 61.33
Ï„00 0.00 band 0.00 band 19.75 year
ICC     0.24
N 295 band 92 band 3 year
Observations 446 99 526
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.014 / NA 0.025 / NA 0.001 / 0.244

Figure: dex cort vs. immediate temp


Table: log dex cort vs. immediate temp

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 2.93 2.70 – 3.17 <0.001 3.22 2.66 – 3.78 <0.001 2.53 2.19 – 2.87 <0.001
Temperature 6-8am (C) -0.01 -0.02 – 0.01 0.343
Capture 2 0.08 -0.04 – 0.20 0.196
Capture 3 -0.14 -0.31 – 0.03 0.104
Latency (min) -0.13 -0.22 – -0.04 0.006 -0.08 -0.26 – 0.11 0.414 -0.13 -0.22 – -0.04 0.005
Temperature 3 hrs prior (C) -0.01 -0.04 – 0.02 0.371 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.00 0.060
Random Effects
σ2 0.20    
τ00 0.02 band    
ICC 0.09    
N 295 band    
Observations 446 99 526
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.032 / 0.116 0.017 / -0.004 0.021 / 0.017

Figure: log dex cort vs. immediate temp


Average temperature night before capture

Here I’m using the average temperature from 10pm to 6am on the night before capture.

Table: dex cort vs. night before

Low temperature previous night.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 19.23 15.01 – 23.45 <0.001 27.70 14.03 – 41.37 <0.001 10.42 6.47 – 14.37 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.06 -0.30 – 0.18 0.643 -0.48 -1.33 – 0.36 0.263 0.08 -0.16 – 0.32 0.498
Capture 2 3.18 0.72 – 5.65 0.011
Capture 3 -1.16 -4.53 – 2.21 0.500
Latency (min) -2.58 -4.29 – -0.88 0.003 -1.25 -5.34 – 2.83 0.548 -1.53 -2.71 – -0.36 0.011
Random Effects
σ2 58.79 108.47  
τ00 7.17 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.11    
N 281 band 80 band  
Observations 380 85 434
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.042 / 0.146 0.020 / NA 0.016 / 0.012

Figure: dex cort vs. night before


Table: log dex cort vs. night before

Average temperature 3 hours before capture.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 2.85 2.61 – 3.08 <0.001 3.12 2.46 – 3.78 <0.001 2.00 1.66 – 2.34 <0.001
Temperature (C) 0.00 -0.01 – 0.01 0.921 -0.01 -0.05 – 0.03 0.610 0.02 -0.00 – 0.04 0.099
Capture 2 0.15 0.01 – 0.28 0.037
Capture 3 -0.12 -0.30 – 0.07 0.219
Latency (min) -0.14 -0.23 – -0.04 0.004 -0.06 -0.26 – 0.13 0.524 -0.09 -0.19 – 0.02 0.096
Random Effects
σ2 0.18 0.25  
τ00 0.03 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.14    
N 281 band 80 band  
Observations 380 85 434
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.039 / 0.174 0.009 / NA 0.013 / 0.008

Figure: log dex cort vs. night before


Average temperature day before capture

Table: dex cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 23.55 18.82 – 28.28 <0.001 29.55 14.81 – 44.28 <0.001 14.51 9.53 – 19.49 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.29 -0.49 – -0.08 0.007 -0.41 -1.08 – 0.26 0.233 -0.17 -0.41 – 0.06 0.152
Capture 2 1.49 -0.57 – 3.54 0.157
Capture 3 -2.45 -5.53 – 0.63 0.119
Latency (min) -2.15 -3.79 – -0.51 0.010 -1.63 -5.80 – 2.53 0.442 -1.44 -2.61 – -0.27 0.016
Random Effects
σ2 54.31 118.16  
τ00 9.89 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.15    
N 274 band 85 band  
Observations 399 91 518
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.046 / 0.193 0.022 / NA 0.016 / 0.012

Figure: dex cort vs. avg day before


Table: log dex cort vs. avg day before

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 3.11 2.84 – 3.37 <0.001 3.34 2.66 – 4.03 <0.001 2.36 1.97 – 2.75 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.01 -0.03 – -0.00 0.016 -0.02 -0.05 – 0.01 0.273 -0.01 -0.02 – 0.01 0.524
Capture 2 0.05 -0.06 – 0.17 0.347
Capture 3 -0.19 -0.36 – -0.02 0.028
Latency (min) -0.11 -0.20 – -0.02 0.018 -0.08 -0.28 – 0.11 0.397 -0.12 -0.21 – -0.03 0.008
Random Effects
σ2 0.16 0.26  
τ00 0.04 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.19    
N 274 band 85 band  
Observations 399 91 518
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.044 / 0.225 0.021 / NA 0.015 / 0.011

Figure: log dex cort vs. avg day before


High temperature day before capture

Table: dex cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 26.64 19.48 – 33.80 <0.001 26.62 12.73 – 40.51 <0.001 14.02 9.31 – 18.74 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.36 -0.63 – -0.10 0.007 -0.20 -0.74 – 0.34 0.462 -0.13 -0.32 – 0.06 0.179
Capture 2 1.68 -1.51 – 4.86 0.302
Capture 3 -2.15 -6.57 – 2.27 0.340
Latency (min) -2.25 -4.57 – 0.08 0.058 -1.70 -5.58 – 2.18 0.391 -1.40 -2.55 – -0.25 0.018
Random Effects
σ2 146.92 113.72  
τ00 0.36 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.00    
N 296 band 92 band  
Observations 447 99 526
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.029 / 0.031 0.014 / NA 0.015 / 0.012

Figure: dex cort vs. high day before


Table: log dex cort vs. high day before

High temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 3.19 2.92 – 3.46 <0.001 3.20 2.55 – 3.84 <0.001 2.34 1.97 – 2.71 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.02 -0.03 – -0.01 0.002 -0.01 -0.03 – 0.02 0.522 -0.00 -0.02 – 0.01 0.549
Capture 2 0.08 -0.04 – 0.20 0.180
Capture 3 -0.14 -0.31 – 0.02 0.088
Latency (min) -0.12 -0.21 – -0.04 0.006 -0.08 -0.26 – 0.10 0.395 -0.12 -0.21 – -0.03 0.008
Random Effects
σ2 0.19 0.25  
τ00 0.02 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.10    
N 296 band 92 band  
Observations 447 99 526
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.049 / 0.147 0.012 / NA 0.015 / 0.011

Figure: log dex cort vs. high day before


Average temperature prior 3 days

Table: dex cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior 3 days.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 23.43 16.53 – 30.33 <0.001 48.78 35.56 – 62.01 <0.001 10.18 4.21 – 16.16 0.001
Temperature (C) -0.26 -0.60 – 0.07 0.122 -1.08 -1.78 – -0.38 0.003 0.05 -0.23 – 0.33 0.739
Capture 2 1.24 -1.03 – 3.50 0.284
Capture 3 -1.61 -5.24 – 2.01 0.383
Latency (min) -2.25 -4.20 – -0.31 0.023 -5.44 -9.32 – -1.57 0.006 -1.39 -2.62 – -0.17 0.026
Random Effects
σ2 61.79 11.98  
τ00 9.14 band 102.79 band  
ICC 0.13 0.90  
N 242 band 77 band  
Observations 338 81 495
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.029 / 0.154 0.129 / 0.909 0.010 / 0.006

Figure: dex cort vs. prior 3 days


Table: log dex cort vs. prior 3 days

Average temperature prior day.
  Adult Female Post-Dex Adult Male Post-Dex Nestling Post-Dex
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
Intercept 3.11 2.84 – 3.37 <0.001 3.34 2.66 – 4.03 <0.001 2.36 1.97 – 2.75 <0.001
Temperature (C) -0.01 -0.03 – -0.00 0.016 -0.02 -0.05 – 0.01 0.273 -0.01 -0.02 – 0.01 0.524
Capture 2 0.05 -0.06 – 0.17 0.347
Capture 3 -0.19 -0.36 – -0.02 0.028
Latency (min) -0.11 -0.20 – -0.02 0.018 -0.08 -0.28 – 0.11 0.397 -0.12 -0.21 – -0.03 0.008
Random Effects
σ2 0.16 0.26  
τ00 0.04 band 0.00 band  
ICC 0.19    
N 274 band 85 band  
Observations 399 91 518
Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.044 / 0.225 0.021 / NA 0.015 / 0.011

Figure: log dex cort vs. prior 3 days


Negative Feedback

Temperature around Capture

Figure: feedback vs. immediate temp


Average temperature night before capture

Figure: feedback vs. night before


Average temperature day before capture

Figure: feedback vs. avg day before


High temperature day before capture

Figure: feedback vs. high day before


Average temperature prior 3 days

Figure: feedback vs. prior 3 days